نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز
2 دانشجو دکترا گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز
3 گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران
چکیده
Predicting future land use changes is an important step in the proper planning and management of watersheds. Therefore, in this study, the land use modeling of the Doroodzen Dam watershed was discussed. First, the land use maps of 1996, 2005, 2016 and 2021 were extracted using Envi software and the maximum likelihood method. The transition potential maps were modeled for each of the sub-models by using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network and 6 variables and Markova chain was used to calculate the allocation of change to each land use. Then, the land use map for 2021 was predicted using Land Change Modeler (LCM) and 2005-2016 calibration period. To verify modeling accuracy, Hits (1.92%), Misses (8.8%), False Alarms (2.94%) were calculated. The ratio of Hits to the total pixels has changed (14%) indicates that model results are acceptable. Then, The LC map was predicted for 2050 year. The results showed that given the predicted LC for year 2050 in comparison with year 2021, bare land, agricultural land, residential areas and orchards are increasing 54290 ha, 7621 ha, 4494 ha and 2391 ha, respectively. whereas grassland and forest cover will decrease 68441 ha and 689 ha, respectively.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Temporal-spatial prediction of land use changes using the LCM model in the Doroodzan Dam Watershed
نویسندگان [English]
- heydar Zarei 1
- Seyedeh Maedeh Shanani Hoveyzeh 2
- Sharif Joorabian Shooshtari 3
1 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2 Ph.D. Student of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Department of Nature Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani
چکیده [English]
Predicting future land use changes is an important step in the proper planning and management of watersheds. Therefore, in this study, the land use modeling of the Doroodzen Dam watershed was discussed. First, the land use maps of 1996, 2005, 2016 and 2021 were extracted using Envi software and the maximum likelihood method. The transition potential maps were modeled for each of the sub-models by using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network and 6 variables and Markova chain was used to calculate the allocation of change to each land use. Then, the land use map for 2021 was predicted using Land Change Modeler (LCM) and 2005-2016 calibration period. To verify modeling accuracy, Hits (1.92%), Misses (8.8%), False Alarms (2.94%) were calculated. The ratio of Hits to the total pixels has changed (14%) indicates that model results are acceptable. Then, The LC map was predicted for 2050 year. The results showed that given the predicted LC for year 2050 in comparison with year 2021, bare land, agricultural land, residential areas and orchards are increasing 54290 ha, 7621 ha, 4494 ha and 2391 ha, respectively. whereas grassland and forest cover will decrease 68441 ha and 689 ha, respectively.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Artificial neural network
- Land use
- LCM
- Markov chain
)