نوع مقاله : مطالعه موردی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، ایران

2 استاد، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

آشکارسازی سهم هر یک از عوامل اقلیمی و انسانی می­تواند به مدیریت منابع آبی کمک کند. در این پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از روش­های آماری وضعیت روند پارامترهای مؤثر بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت ماهیدشت طی دوره 1981 تا 2019 بررسی و سپس با استفاده از آزمون پتیت نقطه تغییر بارش، رواناب و سطح آب زیرزمینی محاسبه شد. مدل GMS به عنوان ابزاری برای شبیه­سازی آبخوان واسنجی شد. پس از تعیین نقطه نغییر، شبیه­سازی سطح آب زیرزمینی قبل و بعد از نقطه تغییر با استفاده از  مدل GMS انجام شد. با حذف اثر عوامل انسانی در مدل سهم اثرات تغییرپذیری اقلیمی و فعالیت­های انسانی بر آب‌های زیرزمینی به­دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد روند معنی­داری در تغییر بارش سالانه وجود ندارد، اما تغییرات رواناب سالانه دارای روند کاهشی و در سطح اعتماد 99% معنی‌دار و روند تراز سطح آب زیرزمینی نیز به‌صورت کاهشی و در سطح اعتماد 99% معنی‌دار شده است. آزمون نقطه تغییر پتیت نشان داد بارش بدون نقطه تغییر، اما رواناب در سال 1998 و تراز آب زیرزمینی در سال 2001 دارای نقطه تغییر است. همچنین مدل­سازی آبخوان نشان داد سهم فعالیت­های انسانی در کاهش تراز آب زیرزمینی آبخوان ماهیدشت به‌صورت متوسط 78% و تغییرپذیری اقلیمی 22% است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Contribution of Human Activities and Climate Variability on Groundwater Changes (Case Study: Mahidasht Aquifer, Kermanshah Province, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Fatahi Chaghabagi 1
  • Ali Mohammad Akhund Ali 2
  • Arash Azari 3

1 Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water & Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

3 Assoc. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

چکیده [English]

Revealing the contribution of each of the climatic and human factors can help the management of water resources. Firstly, trend analysis and change‐point tests were performed to determine the status of the parameters affecting the groundwater resources of the Mahidasht aquifer during the period from 1981 to 2019 by using statistical methods and the Pettitt test. The GMS model was calibrated as a tool to simulate the Mahidasht aquifer system. After determining the change point, modeling of the groundwater level before and after the change point was done using the GMS model. By removing the effect of human factors in the model, the contribution of the effects of climate variability and human activities on groundwater was obtained. The results showed that there was no significant trend in annual rainfall, but the annual runoff has a significantly decreasing trend at the confidence level of 99%, and the trend of the groundwater level is also significantly decreasing at the confidence level of 99%. Pettitt change point test showed precipitation without a change point, but the runoff in 1998 and the groundwater level in 2001 had a change point. Finally, the modeling of the aquifer showed that the contribution of human activities in the reduction of the groundwater level of the Mahidasht aquifer is 78% and climate variability is 22%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aquifer
  • Change Point
  • Conceptual Model
  • Mann-Kendall test
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