بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد ذرت علوفه‌ای در دشت ابهر

نوع مقاله: مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناس ارشد، گروه آب و هواشناسی سینوپتیک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

4 دانش آموخته کارشناس ارشد، گروه آبیاری زهکشی،گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

5 مربی، عضو علمی گروه مهندسی کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، صندوق پستی 3697-19395 تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار در رشد و عملکرد گیاهان، دما است. از اینرو، در این مطالعه روند دمایی آتی در منطقه ابهر تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی طی دوره‌های زمانی آینده تعیین و با دوره مشاهداتی مقایسه شد. سپس، با استفاده از شبیه‌سازی عملکرد گیاه به‌وسیله مدل AquaCrop، عملکرد گیاه در دوره‌های زمانی آتی و در زمان‌های کشت متفاوت شبیه‌سازی و برآورد گردید. در این مطالعه، بازه زمانی دوره مشاهداتی 2010-1986 میلادی، افق نزدیک 2045-2011، افق متوسط 2079-2046 و افق دور 2100-2080 در نظر گرفته شد. به‌منظور ریزمقیاس­نمایی، نتایج مدل شبیه‌سازی گردش عمومی جو از نرم‌افزار LARS-WG طی مدل HadCM3 و سناریوی A2 استفاده شد. همچنین، تولید فایل سناریو نیز انجام گردید. طبق نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، بیشترین عملکرد در کشت 5 خرداد با t/ha 29/46 و کمترین عملکرد در کشت 15 خردادماه با t/ha 6/40 خواهد بود. با انتقال زمان کشت مرسوم از 25 اردیبهشت به 5 خرداد شاهد افزایش عملکرد t/ha 28/0 خواهد بود. در افق‌های آینده زمان کشت 5 اردیبهشت بیشترین عملکرد را خواهد داشت. در افق‌های آتی عملکرد ذرت علوفه­ای کاهش خوهد یافت. می‌توان فروغ­آمایی کمتر در طول دوره رشد کوتاه‌تر و همچنین سیستم فتوسنتزی C4 این محصول را در این کاهش عملکرد دخیل دانست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Climate Change on Sorghum's Yield in the Abhar Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azim Shirdeli 1
  • Forsat Lotfi 2
  • Zabihollah Khani Temeliyeh 3
  • Parisa Fakhimi 4
  • Mostafa Salehi 5
1 Assoc. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
2 M.Sc. Alumni, Department of Hydro-Meteorology, Faculty of Human Science, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
3 PhD Scholar, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
4 M.Sc. Alumni, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
5 Lecturer, Scientific Member of the Department of Agriculture, Payame Noor University, P.O. BOX 19395-3697 Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Temperature is one of the factors affecting plant growth. Hence, in this paper, future temperature trends in Abhar region affected by climate change during future periods was evaluated and compared with the period of observation. Plant yield in the future and different cultivation periods was later simulated and estimated through AquaCrop simulation model of plant yield. The study observation period was considered as 1986-2010 AD, near horizon 2011-2045, the average horizon 2046-2079 and 2080-2100 horizon in the current study. LARS-WG software was used in HadCM3 model and A2 scenario in order to downscale the results of general atmosphere circulation's simulation model. Furthermore, the scenario file was generated in this study. According to the results obtained, the highest yield wil be cultivated on May 26 with 46.29 tons per hectare and the lowest yield will be produced on June 5 with 40.6 tons per hectare. If we change the traditional cultivation time from May 15 to May 26, a growth of 0.28 tons per hectare will be expected.  The highest yield will be on May 15 in the future. Moreover, the sorghum's yield will decrease. Lesser photosynthesis during the shorter growing season and C4 photosynthetic system of this product could be involved in this yield loss.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AquaCrop
  • Climate change
  • Abhar Plain
  • Air Temperature
  • Yield
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