عنوان مقاله [English]
Increasing the emissions of greenhouse gases is among the factors affected the speed of occurrence of
climate change during recent decades. In present study, first using time series data of 2006-2012 and
RCM-PRECIS simulation model, the impacts of greenhouse gases emission on climatic variables of
temperature and precipitation was investigated under different scenarios in watersheds of Qazvin
Province. Then, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and regression analysis were used to assess the
impacts of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the selected products yield. Afterwards,
considering the results of regression analysis in positive mathematical programing (PMP) model, the
amount of the created variation in supply and demand of irrigation water and agricultural output in
watersheds of Qazvin Province was investigated. The results showed that emission of greenhouse gases
under scenarios A, B, and C affects the climatic variables of temperature and precipitation about 0.43 to
1.27 °C and -14.1 to 1.31 mm respectively. This case changes the selected products yield in the surface of
each river basin of Qazvin Province. Change in yield affects acreage of agricultural crops by about -10.51
to 3.17 percent, the amount of irrigation water supply by about -10.4 to 1.64 percent, and the amount of
irrigation water demand by about 1.60 to 7.35 percent. Moreover, the results showed that maximum and
minimum decrease in the gap between supply and demand of irrigation water happens in Kharroud and
Shahroud watersheds by about 9.20 and 1.82 percent respectively. With estimating the gap between
demand and supply of irrigation water, one can adopt the appropriate decisions for sustainable water
resources in watersheds of Qazvin Province.
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