ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر بارش و دما با استفاده از مدلهای HadCM3 و ECHAM4 در حوزۀ آبخیز گرگان رود-قره سو

نوع مقاله: مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه ملایر

2 استادیار، مرکز آموزش و تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

پیش‌بینی‌های اقلیمی نشان می‌دهند که به علت افزایش غلظت گازهای گلخانه‌ای دمای سطح زمین، گرم‌تر شده است. به طوری که منجر به تغییرات قابل توجه در عناصر هواشناسی شده است. در تحقیق حاضر تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر بارش و دمای ایستگاه‌های حوزه آبخیز گرگانرود-قره‌سو برای دوره آماری 1386-1367 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده‌های روزانه خروجی مدل‌های HadCM3 و ECHAM4 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی به‌وسیلۀ مدل LARS-WG برای دوره 2030-2011، ریز مقیاس نمایی و پپیش‌بینی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که بر اساس مدل HadCM3، بارندگی به مقدار 6/12، 3/3 و 5/3 درصد و درجه حرارت به میزان 5/0، 3/0 و 31/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد به ترتیب در سناریوهای A2، B1 و A1B نسبت به دوره‌های پایه افزایش می‌یابد. در مدل ECHAM4 نیز درجه حرارت در هر سه سناریو افزایش می‌یابد، اما بارندگی تا 6/11- درصد بر اساس سناریوی B1 کاهش نشان می‌دهد. نتایج این تحقیق در برنامه‌ریزی‌های مدیریت منابع آب و بخش کشاورزی می‌تواند مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.   

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall and Temperature using HadCM3 and ECHAM4 Models in Gorganrood-Gharesoo Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Diman Ghafari 1
  • Mahnaz Karami Jozani 1
  • Ata Amini 2
1 M.Sc. of Watershed Management, Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, University of Malayer
2 Assist. Professor, Kurdistan Education and Research Center for Agriculture and Natural Resources, Sanandaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate prediction demonstrates that the earth temperature has increased due to increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases. So that led to significant changes in meteorological elements. In this research the effect of climate change on rainfall and temperature at stations of Gorganrood-Gharesoo watershed for the period of 1987-2008 were examined. Daily data output by HadCM3 and ECHAM4 under scenarios of climate models using LARS-WG were downscaling and predicted for the period of 2030-2011. The results showed that based on HadCM3, the amount of rainfall 12.6, 3.3 and 3.5% and temperatures as 0.5, 0.3 and 0.31 °C respectively in the scenarios A2, B1 and A1B increased compared to the base period. Moreover, ECHAM4 model shows increases in temperature in all three scenarios. However rainfall by -11.6% under scenario B1 decreased. The results of this research could be used in water resources management planning and agriculture sector.   

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Golestan province
  • Climate change
  • Downscaling
  • LARS-WG
  • Rainfall
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