نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه. ارومیه. ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه. ارومیه. ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه. ارومیه. ایران

4 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی ارومیه. ارومیه. ایران

چکیده

پیکره آبی دریاچه ارومیه در سال­های اخیر به­ دلایل مختلف از قبیل خشک­سالی­های متوالی با کاهش شدید سطح و حجم روبرو شده است. بنابراین، در این پژوهش وضعیت خشک­سالی در ایستگاه سینوپتیک تبریز به­ عنوان یکی از ایستگاه­های مهم حوزه آبخیز دریاچه ارومیه در مقیاس­های زمانی مختلف با استفاده از شاخص بارش- تبخیر و تعرق استاندارد شده (SPEI) و مدل برنامه ­ریزی بیان ژن (GEP) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور از شاخص SPEI در مقیاس­های زمانی 1، 3، 6، 12، 24 و 48 ماهه طی دوره­ی آماری 53 ساله برای پایش وضعیت خشک­سالی در این ایستگاه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد سه دوره طولانی­ مدت خشک­سالی مربوط به سال­های 1963-1961، 1992-1986 و 2009-1997 در طول دوره آماری وجود دارد. سپس با استفاده از سری زمانی مقادیر SPEI در 5 مدل ورودی با تأخیرهای یک تا 5 ماهه و مدل GEP نسبت به پیش­بینی خشک­سالی اقدام گردید. نتایج نشان داد که دقت پیش­بینی­ مدل GEP با افزایش مقیاس محاسبه SPEI رابطه مستقیم دارد و با افزایش مقیاس زمانی SPEI، دقت پیش­بینی افزایش پیدا می­کند به­ نحوی که ضریب همبستگی در مرحله آزمون در مقیاس یک ماهه (SPEI1) از 203/0 به 988/0 در مقیاس 48 ماهه (SPEI48) و دقت کلی مدل نیز در SPEI1 از 1/57 درصد به 2/94 درصد در SPEI48 رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Gene Expression Programming in Drought Prediction (Case Study: Tabriz Synoptic Station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Abbasi 1
  • Keivan Khalili 2
  • Javad Behmanesh 3
  • Akbar Shirzad 4

1 PhD Scholar, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

2 Assist. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

3 Assoc. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

4 Assist. Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Urmia University of Technology, Urmia, Iran

چکیده [English]

The water body of Urmia Lake in recent years has been faced with a significant reduction in surface area and volume due to various reasons such as successive droughts. Therefore, in this study, the situation of drought was evaluated at the synoptic station of Tabriz as one of the important stations of Urmia Lake basin in different time scales using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the gene expression programming (GEP) model. For this purpose, the SPEI index was used for drought monitoring at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48 months during the 53-year statistical period. The results showed that three long periods of drought related to the years 1961-1963, 1986-1992, and 1997-2009 are available during the statistical period. According to the results, the prediction accuracy is directly related to increasing the scale of SPEI and increased by increasing the scale of SPEI, so that the correlation coefficient in the test stage in the one-month scale (SPEI1) increased from 0.203 to 0.988 at 48-month scale (SPEI48) and the overall accuracy of the model increased from 57.1 in SPEI1 to 94.2 % in SPEI48.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monitoring
  • Prediction
  • Drought
  • Urmia Lake
  • Intelligent Model
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