بررسی تغییراقلیم بر برخی پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی حوزه آبخیز جامیشان با استفاده از مدل SWAT

نوع مقاله: مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

4 کارشناس ارشد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

10.22034/jewe.2020.238651.1383

چکیده

افزایش گازهای گلخانه‌ای در چند دهه اخیر و افزایش دمای ناشی از آن، سبب بر هم خوردن تعادل سیستم اقلیمی کره زمین شده و تغییرات اقلیمی گسترده‌ای را در اغلب نواحی کره زمین به­وجود آورده است. در این پژوهش، ابتدا مدل SWAT برای حوضه جامیشان واسنجی شد. در مرحله درجه­بندی و اعتبارسنجی ضرایب NS و R2 به­ترتیب 6/0، 61/0، 52/0 و 54/0 به­دست آمد. با توجه به نتایج تحلیل حساسیت در منطقه مشخص شد که از میان 20 پارامتر مؤثر بر رواناب، شماره منحنی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین پارامتر بود. سپس مقادیر دما و بارش برای دوره آتی بر اساس سناریو تغییر اقلیم با خروجی‌های مدل چرخش عمومی جو HadCM3 برای سه سناریو A2، B1 و A1B با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG ریزمقیاس شدند. سپس به‌منظور شبیه‌سازی رواناب حوضه، داده‌ها به مدل SWAT معرفی شد و نتایج نشان داد رواناب در دوره آماری 2015 و 2026 نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی در هر سناریو A2، A1B و B1 به­ترتیب به‌میزان متوسط 6، 7 و 6% افزایش پیداکرده و این موضوع، نشان‌دهنده تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب در دوره آینده نزدیک 2016 تا 2026 می‌باشد. این پژوهش نشان داد که تغییر در پارامترهای هواشناسی منجر به تغییر قابل‌توجهی در رژیم هیدرولوژیکی مانند رواناب حوضه خواهد شد. افزایش میزان بارش و دما احتمالاً در آینده سبب ایجاد سیل در منطقه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Some of Hydrological Parameters in Jamishan Watershed using SWAT Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sara Parvizi 1
  • Ali Talebi 2
  • Hossein Malekinezhad 3
  • Maryam Sadeghi 4
1 PhD Student, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
4 M.Sc., Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

The increase in greenhouse gases in recent decades and the resulting increase in temperature have upset the balance of the planet's climate system and caused widespread climate change in most parts of the world. In this study, first the SWAT model was calibrated for Jamishan watershed. The calibration and validation stages, NS and R2 coefficients were 0.6, 0.61, 0.52, and 0.54, respectively. According to the results of sensitivity analysis in the region, it was found that among the 20 parameters affecting runoff, the curve number was the most important parameter. Then, the values of temperature and precipitation for the next period based on the climate change scenario were subscaled with the outputs of the HadCM3 general atmosphere rotation model for the three scenarios A2, B1 and A1B using the LARS-WG model. Later, in order to simulate the watershed runoff, the data were introduced to the SWAT model and the results showed that the runoff in the statistical period of 2015 and 2026 increased by 6, 7 and 6% respectively compared to the observation period in each scenario A2, A1B and B1 and this shows the impact of climate change on runoff in the near future from 2016 to 2026. This study showed that changes in meteorological parameters will lead to significant changes in hydrological regime such as watershed runoff. Increasing rainfall and temperature are likely to cause floods in the region in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • HADCM3 Model
  • LARS-WG model
  • SWAT model
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