نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، یران

چکیده

خشکسالی از مهم‌ترین بلایای طبیعی است که به دلیل فراوانی رخداد نیازمند ارزیابی و پایش به‌خصوص در حوزه کشاورزی می­باشد. در پژوهش حاضر از شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی (RDI) جهت پایش خشکسالی و ارزیابی مکانی شدت آن در مناطق مرکزی و جنوبی استان فارس استفاده‌شد. رابطه شدت و مدت‌زمان تداوم خشکسالی طی سال‌های مختلف دوره آماری موردنظر (1991-1990 تا 2013-2012) موردبررسی قرار گرفت. جهت ارزیابی مکانی از مدل کریجینگ در محیط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) استفاده‌شد. براساس مقایسه میان نیم­تغییرنماهای مختلف مدل کریجینگ، مناسب‌ترین مدل انتخاب شد. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده شدت خشکسالی، تداوم و روند آن طی دوره آماری موردمطالعه تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد در ایستگاه‌های شهرستان‌های داراب و نیریز طی سال‌های 2000 تا 2002 و 2008 تا 2010 خشکسالی­های شدیدی رخ‌داده است. در ایستگاه‌های شهرستان‌های فسا و جهرم نیز در بیش­تر سال‌ها نوسانات اقلیمی منجر به وقوع خشکسالی با شدت‌های کم تا زیاد شده است. در ایستگاه منطقه لارستان نیز نتایج نشان داد خشکسالی‌های متعددی رخ ‌داده است و تعداد رخداد خشکسالی ها در دهه 2000 تا 2010 بسیار زیاد بوده است. در ارزیابی مکانی خشکسالی، با استفاده از مدل کریجینگ، نتایج نشان داد بر اساس مقایسه انجام‌گرفته مناسب‌ترین نیم­تغییرنما، مدل کروی است. ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری خشکسالی در مناطق موردمطالعه نیز نشان داد مناطق شمالی شهرستان نیریز، استهبان، فسا، داراب و لارستان دچار آسیب بیش­تری گردیده‌اند. لذا استفاده از شاخص‌های خشکسالی، روش‌های پایش و پهنه‌بندی شدت خشکسالی جهت مدیریت بهتر و برنامه‌ریزی جهت پیش‌آگاهی ضروری می‌باشد و استفاده از آن جهت تصمیم‌گیری‌های مدیریت منابع آب پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agricultural Drought Monitoring Using Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Kriging Geostatistical Model (Case Study: Central and Southern Regions of Fars Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Amir Shamsnia 1
  • Davoud Khodadadi Dehkordi 2

1 Assist. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

2 Assist. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that due to the frequency of occurrence needs to be assessed and monitored, especially in the field of agriculture. In the present study, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was used to monitor drought and spatially assess its severity in central and southern regions of Fars province. The relationship between the severity and duration of drought during different years of the statistical period (1990-1991 to 2012-2013) was investigated. Kriging model was used in the geographic information system (GIS) environment for spatial evaluation. Based on the comparison between the different semivariogram of the kriging model, the most suitable model was selected. Based on the results of drought severity, its continuity and trend were determined during the statistical period. The results showed that severe droughts occurred in Darab and Neyriz stations during 2000-2002 and 2008-2010. In Fasa and Jahrom stations, in most of the years, climate fluctuations have led to drought with low to high intensities. At Larestan station, the results also showed several droughts have occurred, especially during the years 2000 to 2010. In spatial evaluation of drought using the Kriging model, the results showed that the best semivariogram is the spherical model. The evaluation of drought vulnerability in the studied areas also showed that the northern areas of Nayriz, Estahban, Fasa, Darab and Larestan have suffered more damage. Therefore, the use of drought indices, drought intensity monitoring and mapping methods are essential for better management and planning for advance planning and it is recommended for water resources management decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Fars Province
  • Geographic Information Systems
  • Semivariogram
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