ارزیابی پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی حوزه‌های آبخیز استان مازندران با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)

نوع مقاله: مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مطالعات فرهنگی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

10.22034/jewe.2020.235593.1370

چکیده

یکی از مهم­ترین اقدامات لازم برای پیشگیری و مقابله با اثرات مخرب سیلاب، شناسایی مناطق با بیش­ترین پتانسیل سیل­خیزی در سطح حوزه­ آبخیز و زیرحوزه­های آن می­باشد. در این پژوهش سعی شده است تا با استفاده از مدل فرآیند تحلیل سلسله ­مراتبی، مناطق با بیش­ترین ظرفیت تولید رواناب و سیل در حوزه آبخیز استان مازندران تعیین شود. در این راستا از لایه­های ارتفاع، شیب، کاربری اراضی، زمین­شناسی، شدت ‌جریان تجمعی و شدت بارش استفاده شد. پس از محاسبه وزن نهایی هرکدام از عوامل ورودی با استفاده از مدل فرآیند سلسله مراتبی در نرم­افزار ARC-GIS10.5، از ترکیب لایه­های ورودی برای ساخت نقشه درجه سیل­خیزی محدوده مطالعاتی در پنج دسته مختلف شامل خیلی زیاد، زیاد، متوسط، کم و خیلی کم استفاده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان داد که 79/36% سطح استان مازندران معادل با وسعت km2 82/9244 دارای خطر سیل­خیزی زیاد و خیلی زیاد است. هم­چنین تقریباً نیمی از سطح این استان، معادل با وسعت km2 51/12028، در محدوده سیل­خیزی متوسط قرار دارد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده نشان داد که میزان خطر سیل‌خیزی در هر یک از ایستگاه­های هیدرومتری، با مشاهدات واقعی تعداد سیلاب­ها که عمدتاً با دوره بازگشت 50 و 100 سال هستند تا حد مطلوبی منطبق می­باشد. این موضوع بیانگر دقت بالای روش به­کار گرفته‌شده و صحت وزن­های تخصیص‌یافته به هریک از عوامل مؤثر است که قابلیت بهره‌برداری از نتایج پژوهش برای اقدامات پیشگیرانه آتی را روشن می­سازد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Flood Hazard using Analytic Hierarchy Process Method (AHP) in Mazandaran Province, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ehsan Shahiri Tabarestani 1
  • Mohammad saeid Zokaei 2
1 PhD Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Cultural Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the most important steps to prevent and deal with the destructive effects of floods is to identify areas with the highest flood potential in the watershed and its sub-basins. In this research, an attempt was made to determine the regions with the highest capacity of runoff and flood production in Mazandaran Province basin using the hierarchical analysis process (AHP) model. On this basis, six factors including heights, slope, land use, geology, flow accumulation, and rainfall were used. After calculating the final weight of each input factor using the hierarchical process model in ArcGIS (V. 10.5) software, a combination of input layers was used to construct a flooding map of the study area in five different categories including very high, high , Medium, low, and very little. Results showed that 38.79% of the Mazandaran Province, equivalent to the area of 9244.82 km2, has a high and very high flooding hazard. Moreover, almost half of this province, equivalent to the area of 12028.51 km2 has a moderate flooding hazard. The results reveal that flooding hazard at each hydrometric stations was in good agreement with the historical observations of floods, that most of them have the return periods of 50- and 100-year. It implies the high accuracy of the method and the weights assigned to each of the effective factors. This clarifies the usability of this research results for future preventive implementation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flooding hazard degree
  • GIS
  • Mazandaran Basin
  • Pair comparison
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