پیش‎‏نمایی بارش و روند تغییرات آن تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم در دوره‏‎های آتی (مطالعه موردی: تبریز)

نوع مقاله: مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

در این پژوهش، پیش‏نمایی بارش در سه دوره آتی 2040-2021، 2060-2041 و 2080-2061 با استفاده از ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری LARS-WG6 انجام شد. بدین منظور از دو سناریوی RCP4.5(انتشار پایین گازهای گلخانه‏ای) و RCP8.5 (انتشار بالای گازهای گلخانه‏ای) و مدل گردش عمومی جو MPI-ESM-MRکه یکی از مدل‏های جفت شده CMIP5 است، استفاده شد. روند تغییرات بارش به‌صورت سالانه و فصلی در دوره پایه و دوره آتی 2080-2021 با روش من-کندال تحلیل شد. شیب‌خط روند با روش تخمین‏گر سن به­دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که در فصل زمستان در هر سه دوره آتی طبق هر دو سناریو، بارش افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین در فصل بهار و پاییز، طبق سناریوی RCP8.5در تمام دوره‏ها، بارش کاهش خواهد یافت. ماه‏های دسامبر و ژانویه در هر سه دوره طبق هر دو سناریو افزایش بارش خواهند داشت. برعکس، ماه‏های مارس، ژوئیه، سپتامبر و اکتبر نیز در هر سه دوره آتی طبق هر دو سناریو کاهش در میزان بارش را تجربه خواهند کرد. میانگین بارش سالانه در دوره 2080-2061 بر اساس هر دو سناریو کاهش و بیش­ترین کاهش در میانگین بارش سالانه در دوره 2080-2061 بر اساس سناریوی RCP8.5به­میزان 4/10% خواهد بود. همچنین بیش­ترین افزایش در میانگین بارش سالانه در دوره 2060-2041 بر اساس سناریوی RCP4.5به­میزان 1/8 % مشاهده شد. در هیچ‌یک از دوره‏ها در سطح 5% روند معنی‏داری مشاهده نشد. در تمام فصول شیب‌خط روند در دوره پایه و دوره آتی بر اساس سناریوی RCP8.5منفی و بر اساس سناریوی RCP4.5 مثبت گزارش شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Projection of Precipitation and its Variability under the Climate Change Conditions in the Future Periods (Case Study: Tabriz)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Sadeqi 1
  • Yagob Dinpashoh 2
1 M.Sc., Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Assoc. Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this research, projection of precipitation in the three distinct 20-years future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080) was performed using the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling model. For this purpose, two scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model, which is known to be a CMIP5 coupled models were utilized. The precipitation trends were analyzed in the base and future periods using the Mann-Kendall method for both seasonal and annual time scales. Sen’s estimator method was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines. The results showed that winter precipitation will be increased during the three considered future periods. Moreover, in the spring and autumn, according to the RCP8.5 scenario, precipitation will be decreased in all future periods. The precipitation in December and January would be increased in all three future periods using both scenarios. March, July, September, and October will also experience a decline in precipitation in the three future periods, according to both scenarios. The mean annual precipitation in the future period of 2061-2080 would be decreased based on both scenarios. The highest reduction in precipitation would occur in the period 2061-2080 belonged to the RCP8.5 scenario in which the amount of reduction in mean annual precipitation is equal to 10.4%. In addition, based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the highest increase in the average annual precipitation during the future period of 2041-2060 was equal to 8.1%. There was no significant trend in precipitation series at 5% level. The slope of the trend lines in the base period and the future periods, based on the scenario RCP8.5, was found to be negative in all seasons. While in the future period, based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the trend line slope was positive for in all seasons.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • LARS-WG6
  • Precipitation
  • RCP Scenarios
  • Tabriz
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